Not logged in : Login
(Sponging disallowed)

About: Decomposition Genetic Programming: An Extensive Evaluation on Rainfall Prediction in the Context of Weather Derivatives     Goto   Sponge   Distinct   Permalink

An Entity of Type : bibo:AcademicArticle, within Data Space : demo.openlinksw.com associated with source document(s)

AttributesValues
type
seeAlso
sameAs
http://eprints.org/ontology/hasAccepted
http://eprints.org/ontology/hasDocument
dc:hasVersion
Title
  • Decomposition Genetic Programming: An Extensive Evaluation on Rainfall Prediction in the Context of Weather Derivatives
  • Decomposition Genetic Programming: An Extensive Evaluation on Rainfall Prediction in the Context of Weather Derivatives
described by
Date
  • 2018-09-01
  • 2018-09-01
Creator
status
Publisher
abstract
  • Regression problems provide some of the most challenging research opportunities in the area of machine learning, where the predictions of some target variables are critical to a specific application. Rainfall is a prime example, as it exhibits unique characteristics of high volatility and chaotic patterns that do not exist in other time series data. Moreover, rainfall is essential for applications that surround financial securities, such as rainfall derivatives. This paper extensively evaluates a novel algorithm called Decomposition Genetic Programming (DGP), which is an algorithm that decomposes the problem of rainfall into subproblems. Decomposition allows the GP to focus on each subproblem, before combining back into the full problem. The GP does this by having a separate regression equation for each subproblem, based on the level of rainfall. As we turn our attention to subproblems, this reduces the difficulty when dealing with data sets with high volatility and extreme rainfall values, since these values can be focused on independently. We extensively evaluate our algorithm on 42 cities from Europe and the USA, and compare its performance to the current state-of-the-art (Markov chain extended with rainfall prediction), and six other popular machine learning algorithms (Genetic Programming without decomposition, Support Vector Regression, Radial Basis Neural Networks, M5 Rules, M5 Model trees, and k-Nearest Neighbours). Results show that the DGP is able to consistently and significantly outperform all other algorithms. Lastly, another contribution of this work is to discuss the effect that DGP has had on the coverage of the rainfall predictions and whether it shows robust performance across different climates.
  • Regression problems provide some of the most challenging research opportunities in the area of machine learning, where the predictions of some target variables are critical to a specific application. Rainfall is a prime example, as it exhibits unique characteristics of high volatility and chaotic patterns that do not exist in other time series data. Moreover, rainfall is essential for applications that surround financial securities, such as rainfall derivatives. This paper extensively evaluates a novel algorithm called Decomposition Genetic Programming (DGP), which is an algorithm that decomposes the problem of rainfall into subproblems. Decomposition allows the GP to focus on each subproblem, before combining back into the full problem. The GP does this by having a separate regression equation for each subproblem, based on the level of rainfall. As we turn our attention to subproblems, this reduces the difficulty when dealing with data sets with high volatility and extreme rainfall values, since these values can be focused on independently. We extensively evaluate our algorithm on 42 cities from Europe and the USA, and compare its performance to the current state-of-the-art (Markov chain extended with rainfall prediction), and six other popular machine learning algorithms (Genetic Programming without decomposition, Support Vector Regression, Radial Basis Neural Networks, M5 Rules, M5 Model trees, and k-Nearest Neighbours). Results show that the DGP is able to consistently and significantly outperform all other algorithms. Lastly, another contribution of this work is to discuss the effect that DGP has had on the coverage of the rainfall predictions and whether it shows robust performance across different climates.
Is Part Of
Subject
list of authors
volume
  • 70
  • 70
is topic of
is primary topic of
Faceted Search & Find service v1.17_git144 as of Jul 26 2024


Alternative Linked Data Documents: iSPARQL | ODE     Content Formats:   [cxml] [csv]     RDF   [text] [turtle] [ld+json] [rdf+json] [rdf+xml]     ODATA   [atom+xml] [odata+json]     Microdata   [microdata+json] [html]    About   
This material is Open Knowledge   W3C Semantic Web Technology [RDF Data] Valid XHTML + RDFa
OpenLink Virtuoso version 08.03.3331 as of Aug 25 2024, on Linux (x86_64-ubuntu_noble-linux-glibc2.38-64), Single-Server Edition (378 GB total memory, 29 GB memory in use)
Data on this page belongs to its respective rights holders.
Virtuoso Faceted Browser Copyright © 2009-2024 OpenLink Software